A Familiar, Dangerous Crossroad
Another terror attack, another cycle of violence.
The assault on civilians and security personnel in Pahalgam earlier this month has once again pushed India and Pakistan dangerously close to the edge. Responding swiftly, India strikes Pok launched precision strikes on nine terror facilities in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (PoK), named as ‘Operation Sindoor’ signaling a firm but calibrated warning: terrorism will not go unanswered.
[Indian Armed Forces struck the city of Bahawalpur in Pakistan with guided missiles.] Video Credits: War Noir
[Pakistani residents found debris from Kamikaze drones (possible Poland-made WB Electronics “Warmate”) allegedly used by Indian Army in Sialkot, Punjab.] Video Credits: War Noir
While officials in New Delhi termed the operations as “limited, counter-terrorist actions,” the real question is: can such escalations be contained indefinitely between two nuclear-armed rivals?
How Likely Is Escalation?
History offers some guidance. After Kargil (1999), Uri (2016), and Balakot (2019), both countries managed to pull back from full-scale war — primarily due to political calculations, international diplomacy, and the shadow of nuclear deterrence. This time, several forces again point toward controlled escalation:
- Domestic pressures: India is entering critical state elections; Pakistan is facing near-economic collapse. Sustained conflict risks political fallout at home for both leaders.
- Global pressure: Countries like the U.S., U.K., and Gulf powers have already issued calls for “maximum restraint,” fearing a broader destabilization of South Asia.
- Mutual deterrence: Both armies know a limited engagement is one thing; risking escalation into a nuclear exchange is quite another.
What is more probable is a prolonged hybrid conflict, characterized by cross-border skirmishes, cyber operations, propaganda wars, and covert action.
But hybrid wars come with their own dangers: the longer tensions simmer, the higher the chance of a misstep triggering wider confrontation.
Impact on Civilians
- In Kashmir, locals face intensified security restrictions, curfews, and an economic freeze. Tourism — vital to towns like Pahalgam — has already collapsed. For many, daily life has once again turned into a waiting game between peace and fear.
- In PoK, Civilians near terror hubs live under the constant threat of displacement, stray shells, and uncertainty. Pakistan’s economic woes mean relief efforts are likely to be slow or insufficient.
- Displacement risks: Skirmishes can trigger local refugee movements, putting more pressure on already stretched civic and security infrastructures.
The Broader Economic Stakes for India
The conflict comes at a particularly sensitive time for India, when its global economic ambitions are taking real shape.
- India-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA): Negotiations for a landmark FTA with Britain are nearing their final phase. A successful deal could boost India’s exports significantly, open markets for professional services, and cement India’s position as a vital trade partner post-Brexit.
- India-Saudi Arabia Energy Cooperation: Recently, Prime Minister Modi and Saudi leadership agreed to explore joint refinery and petrochemical projects worth billions. This strengthens India’s energy security at a time when diversifying oil and gas sources is critical.
- Strategic Partnerships with Qatar: Qatar, an important Gulf nation, has expressed full support to India’s counter-terrorism efforts, signaling growing diplomatic heft. Stronger India-Gulf ties could lead to more security and energy collaboration.
The Risk: Any prolonged conflict could rattle investor confidence, complicate trade negotiations, and distract government’s bandwidth from critical economic reforms and international deals.
- Investors hate uncertainty. An unstable security environment could make businesses hesitant to commit to long-term projects.
- Diplomatic energy might shift from pushing trade and investment deals to managing security crises.
- Defense budgets could swell, diverting funds from infrastructure, healthcare, and education sectors vital for long-term growth.
In short, the real cost of conflict isn’t just immediate, it’s the opportunity cost of lost growth and missed strategic milestones.
The South Asian Ripple Effect
South Asia as a whole stands to lose:
- Regional trade will suffer: Already limited India-Pakistan economic ties could disappear almost entirely.
- Afghanistan could destabilize further: A distracted Pakistan could lose grip over terror networks on its western frontier.
- China’s influence may grow: With tensions high, Beijing could tighten its strategic presence in Pakistan under the CPEC framework, altering the balance further against Indian interests.
Final Thought: High Stakes, Slim Margins
The India strikes PoK are a tactical success for India, reaffirming the doctrine of proactive counter-terrorism. But strategically, the stakes remain perilously high.
At a time when India stands poised to become a global manufacturing hub, a major services exporter, and a leader in green energy, any major security distraction could delay – if not derail- these ambitions.
The challenge for New Delhi now is to keep the strategic focus sharp: neutralize terrorism with precision, avoid overextension, and continue building India’s economic and diplomatic architecture.
In a world full of shifting alliances and competing economies, the real victory may not lie in defeating an enemy on the battlefield – but in winning the longer war for global leadership.
